ACM Seminar: The RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge: Synthesis and Lessons Learnt
Applied and Computational Math (ACM) Seminar
The RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge: Synthesis and Lessons Learnt
Dr. Gerardo Chowell, Professor, School of Public Health, Georgia State University
I will present the results of a synthetic forecasting challenge inspired by the West African Ebola crisis in 2014-2015 and involving 16 international academic teams and US government agencies, and compare the predictive performance of 8 independent modeling approaches. Challenge participants were invited to predict 140 targets across 5 different time points of 4 synthetic Ebola outbreaks, each involving different levels of interventions and “fog of war”. Prediction targets included 1-4 week-ahead case incidence, outbreak size, peak timing, and several natural history parameters.