ACM Seminar: The RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge: Synthesis and Lessons Learnt

When:
September 14, 2017 @ 1:00 pm – 2:00 pm
2017-09-14T13:00:00-04:00
2017-09-14T14:00:00-04:00
Where:
M&S Seminar Room 1441
25 Park Place
Atlanta, GA 30303
USA
Contact:
Alexandra Smirnova

Event
Applied and Computational Math (ACM) Seminar

Title
The RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge: Synthesis and Lessons Learnt

Speaker
Dr. Gerardo Chowell, Professor, School of Public Health, Georgia State University

Abstract
I will present the results of a synthetic forecasting challenge inspired by the West African Ebola crisis in 2014-2015 and involving 16 international academic teams and US government agencies, and compare the predictive performance of 8 independent modeling approaches. Challenge participants were invited to predict 140 targets across 5 different time points of 4 synthetic Ebola outbreaks, each involving different levels of interventions and “fog of war”. Prediction targets included 1-4 week-ahead case incidence, outbreak size, peak timing, and several natural history parameters.